Tinubu’S Naira-For-Crude: A Game Changer? By Maxwell Adeyemi Adeleye

Nigeria, a giant nation in Africa and a major oil producing nation has engaged in a business aberration for decades – she sells her crude oil, her major source of revenue to the world in US dollars. This practice, they say, is in line with the global norm where the dollar serves as the dominant currency for international trade – a western neoclassical and monopolistic agenda promulgated to control the economy of the third world.

Meanwhile, as a business entity within the Nigerian Federation, the Dangote group, citing extant laws that prohibits the conduct of internal busineses in currencies other than Naira, would not accept to buy Nigeria crude in dollars as the Nigeria’s National Petroleum Corporation Ltd wanted. Hence, the yet-to-be rested furore between Aliko Dangote and the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL). To stop this feud, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu created the Naira-for-Crude for Dangote Refinery’s transaction with the NNPCL.

The new Tinubu’s Naira-For-Crude policy states that Nigeria should instead sell its crude oil in naira, demanding payment in the local currency from buyers as well. The objective of this policy is to reduce Nigeria’s dependency on the dollar which will in turn strengthen the naira and promote its use within the domestic and international markets.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as of 2023, the dollar accounts for approximately 59% of global foreign exchange reserves and around 88% of all foreign exchange transactions. This dollar-centric model has entrenched the US currency as the de facto standard for international trade in many countries, including Nigeria.

In Nigeria, the implications of this dollar dominance is seen in different ways, impacting Nigeria’s economy. The first and main impact can be seen in Nigeria’s oil revenue, which has a significant portion of its foreign exchange earnings and is always influenced by the fluctuations in the dollar’s value. Nigeria’s revenue dependence on dollars has created vulnerabilities, as any depreciation in the dollar impacts the value of Nigeria’s oil revenues, and price of all essential commodities, affecting the country’s economic stability.

Recent data shows the scale at which Nigeria’s economy depends on dollars. According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the country’s foreign reserves, as of mid-2024, were approximately $33 billion, with the majority held in US dollars. In contrast, the naira’s exchange rate has faced persistent pressure, with the naira trading at around ₦1660 to $1 in the parallel market. A country like Russia has attempted a similar strategy like this by promoting the usage of the ruble in international transactions to reduce reliance on the dollar and it has achieved a level of success.

It is my patrotic opinion that utilizing the naira for crude oil transactions will enhance Nigeria’s economic sovereignty. It would signal a move towards greater control over economic transactions and reduce reliance on external currency systems. The Naira-for-Crude step will strengthen the Naira and increase its value. Increased demand for the naira in international oil transactions would support its exchange rate and might help stabilize or even appreciate its value over time.

Corroborating the aforementioned, Aliko Dangote, in a recent interview with the Arise TV, stated that the Naira-for-Crude policy will reduce the demand for dollars by 40%, giving stability to Naira. This policy could also help reduce Nigeria’s dependency on the US dollar, leading to a more balanced foreign exchange reserve. By promoting the naira as a transactional currency, It is possible to reduce its exposure to dollar fluctuations and the associated economic risks that are associated with trading in dollars. The policy will in turn promote a better usage of the naira in other sectors of the economy, creating a more robust domestic financial system.

This shift will reflect in local businesses and encourage foreign investors to engage more with Nigeria’s economy in naira terms which will boost Nigeria’s revenue. This will also make it possible to compute and track the true national consumption of fuel in Nigeria and improve data collection.

Implementing this and achieving a Naira-centric economy might be a hassle in the beginning due to Naira’s volatility but to ensure a flawless economic growth with the new Naira-for-Crude policy, President Tinubu needs to implement comprehensive economic reforms. Strengthening the naira’s value involves not just policy changes but also improvements in fiscal discipline, monetary policies, and overall economic governance.

And by shifting oil transactions from dollars to naira, Nigeria could potentially enhance its economic sovereignty, stabilize the naira, and promote a more resilient local economy. As Nigeria celebrates this new policy that promotes the nation’s growth, it is important to implement supportive economic reforms. The Naira-For-Crude initiative, if courageously executed, could indeed become a game changer, paving the way for a more self-reliant and robust Nigerian economy.

In conclusion, President Bola Tinubu should order that all foreign missions and diplomatic operations within Nigeria should transact exclusively in naira. This could be a significant step towards reinforcing the local currency. It is an aberration to charge a Nigerian in dollars or pounds for the UK visa application within the Nigeria territory. All foreign and diplomatic missions in Nigeria should open a naira account for their operations. The Nigerian High Commission in the United Kingdom and the United States of America use Pounds Sterling and Dollars for their operations, not naira. Thus, all diplomatic missions should transact their businesses in naira within Nigeria.

Maxwell Adeyemi Adeleye is a United Kingdom based Strategic Communications Expert and Real Estate Broker. He can be reached via [email protected]